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Khamis, Januari 13, 2011

Prof Madya Dr Abu Hassan Hasbullah yakin pengundi kini tak percaya manifesto lagi


MUQADIMAH: Profesor Madya Dr. Abu Hassan Hasbullah, seorang yang agak kritis mengkaji fenomena politik di Malaysia.  Banyak kajian dilakukannya. Jikapun tidak tepat, ia hampir-hampir tepat. Apakah Pilihan Raya Umum (PRU) ke-13 bakal menjengah dalam waktu yang terdekat? Wartawan Harakah, NYZA AYOB cuba menggali pemikiran  dan berkongsi pendapat dengan pensyarah kanan Jabatan Pengajian Media, Universiti Malaya ini yang juga Pengasas Zentrum Future Studies mengenai teka-teki bilakah PRU akan diistiharkan Perdana Menteri.

Sebagai penganalis  politik, situasi bagaimanakah Dr. melihat BN berada dalam keadaan cukup selamat untuk istiharkan Pilihan Raya Umum ke 13?

DR. ABU HASSAN HASBULLAH: PRU 13 sebenarnya tidak lagi ditentukan oleh kedudukan BN dalam situasi yang selamat atau Pakatan Rakyat dalam situasi yang lemah atau sebaliknya. PRU 13 boleh diadakan bila-bila masa sahaja sama ada tahun ini, tahun hadapan atau sehingga tamat tempoh penggal ini, ia masih berkeadaan sama.  Sebab penentunya adalah di kalangan  golongan baru yang terdiri daripada golongan liberal relatif dalam perilaku serta berfungsi sebagai rakyat. Jadi, sekarang ini tidak ada mana-mana petunjuk sama ada dalam bentuk data, persepsi, atau dalam bentuk kajian-kajain holistik yang mengatakan sama ada BN semakin kuat atau Pakatan Rakyat semakin lemah atau sebaliknya. Dengan  kata lain kedudukan sekarang ini sama sahaja di seluruh negara. Sebagai mana terjadi di Pakistan, United Kingdom, Jepun atau Jerman. Politik masa depan tidak lagi ditentukan oleh sikap politik yang diwarisi. 

Boleh jelaskan maksud Dr itu...

Maknanya jika mereka memilih satu parti, maka satu keluarga itu akan memilih parti tersebut turun temurun. Ia tidak lagi berlaku. Generasi seperti ini sebenarnya bergantung kepada krisis yang terjadi, iaitu jika berlaku krisis atau tekanan pada kehidupan mereka seperti kenaikan harga rumah, kenaikan tambang pengangkutan, barangan serta penghidupan semakin susah, maka bila-bila sahaja mereka boleh berubah kepercayaan politik mereka. Jadi, pada pandangan saya, tidak kira bila, PRU 13 akan diadakan bukan masa yang sama seperti kedudukan 2008, bermaksud kekuatan parti-parti politik masih bergantung sepenuhnya kepada  pola perubahan pengundi  khususnya pengundi muda yang berusia 21 tahun sehingga 40 tahun ataupun golongan new politariat ini. 

Mereka tak terikat dengan ideologi atau mana-mana parti untuk disokong. Ini genarasi yang ada sekarang...

Iya! Mereka sebenarnya bukanlah kumpulan yang taksub kepada mana-mana kepercayaan politik. Mereka cuma mementingkan penghidupan mereka menjadi selesa serta penghidupan yang lebih mudah dan murah serta sejahtera kerana mereka adalah pengembara. Mereka akan pergi ke Eropah, Jepun atau Korea dan mereka akan membandingkan situasi di negara kita. Bila-bila masa sahaja. Jadi tidak timbul isu adakah jika PRU 13 itu diadakan cepat, selamat bagi BN  kerana kedudukan sekarang ialah penentunya 60 peratus adalah golongan baru yang tidak berpihak kepada mana-mana, secara takjubnya mereka boleh berubah dalam masa satu minit sekalipun.   

Apa sentimen yang akan dilihat Najib selaku Pengerusi BN dalam menentukan tarikh PRU ini?

Mungkin krisis yang terjadi pada Pakatan Rakyat atau pelbagai isu yang terjadi dalam Pakatan Rakyat mungkin  dianggap sebagai petunjuk BN kuat. Itu sahaja.
Banyaknya krisis yang berlaku dalam Pakatan Rakyat maka semakin tinggi kepercayaan menunjukkan Pakatan Rakyat semakin lemah, sekaligus bermaksud BN semakin kuat. Hanya petunjuk ini yang digunakan kerana petunjuk daripada masyarakat pengundi amat sukar dibaca dan ditentukan. 
Walaupun kita melakukan kajian secara mendalam dan holistik, tetapi  ia amat sukar kerana pengundi-pengundi ini bergantung sepenuhnya kepada persepsi saat-saat akhir kenapa mereka harus melakukan sesuatu. Mereka akan bertindak dalam waktu terdekat iaitu mereka berfungsi sebaik sahaja pilihan raya itu diadakan.

Berdasarkan PRU sebelum ini dengan tempoh tertentu yang tidak melebihi lima tahun, adakah tahun 2011 ini, sudah cukup atau amat sesuai  masa untuk Najib mengadakan pilihan raya?

Kita lihat daripada aspek pentadbiran mungkin keinginan untuk membentuk kuasa politik dua pertiga itu ada pada BN. Maka atas dasar itu, kemungkinan BN akan mengadakan pilihan raya cepat apatah lagi dalam situasi Pakatan Rakyat yang terumbang-ambing daripada persepsinya. Itu sahaja. 
Mood apa pun untuk menjangkakan sama ada pilihan raya yang diadakan itu boleh memberi keuntungan secara besar-besaran kepada mana-mana pihak amat jauh daripada persepsi yang berlegar di kalangan masyarakat kerana persepsi yang berlegar di kalangan masyarakat masih kabur. 
Masyarakat berharap kepada krisis-krisis yang akan terjadi dan pemikiran mereka yang dipengaruhi oleh perubahan yang berlaku di seluruh rantau Asean ini.

Tidakkah BN akan melaksana segala apa yang dirancangnya seperti Program Transformasi Ekonomi (ETP) sebelum mengadakan pilhan raya?

Sebab itu saya mengatakan mana-mana parti politik jika berjaya melakukan politik pragmatik,  sesuatu yang menggembirakan masyarakat. Masyarakat akan memberi kepercayaan politik kepada mereka. 
Maka, ini akan mewujudkan persaingan kerana sebelum ini telah wujud persaingan yang sangat kuat di antara BN dan Pakatan Rakyat sekaligus telah membawa politik yang agak matang di Malaysia dengan wujudnya kedudukan politik yang stabil antara kerajaan dan pihak pembangkang. Begitulah sebaliknya.

Adakah janji 100 hari Pakatan Rakyat akan memberi kesan pada pentadbiran Najib untuk menyediakan pelan 'counter back'  sekiranya pilihan raya akan diadakan tahun ini?

Pada pandangan saya masyarakat sekarang secara realistiknya tidak mempercayai manifesto.Tidak kira siapa pun yang melakukan manifesto itu, masyarakat tidak memberi perhatian yang besar kepadanya. 
Cuma setiap posisi politik boleh memberi manifesto dan merencana strategi mereka bagi negara ini. Masyaraat menilai dengan cara lain iaitu menilai sejauh mana kebersihan ahli politik dalam menjayakan sebuah negara yang mempunyai tanggung  jawab sosial yang tinggi terhadap masyarakatnya.

Kenapa Dr. berkata masyarakat kini sudah tidak mempercayai manifesto sedangkan sebelum ini telah banyak janji dalam manifesto Negara Berkebajikan Pakatan Rakyat ditunaikan?

Sebenarnya selepas PRU 12, kebanyakan parti politik gagal memenuhi  manifestio tersebut baik secara strategi mahupun secara realiti dan praktikal. Dengan kata lain, masyarakat sudah hilang sedikit kepercayaan terhadap manifesto, slogan atau kempen-kempen tidak kira daripada apa pun. 
Jadi masyarakat sekarang lebih berfikir terhadap politik praktikal atau pragmatik bermakna sesiapa yang dapat membawa masyarakat terhadap penghidupan ataupun sivil society atau masyarakat madani iaitu masyarakat yang hidup serba selamat dan sejahtera serta tidak dibebankan dengan segala macam bebanan. 
Maka masyarakat akan memilih aliran politik yang sebegini. Sebab itu saya mengatakan perkembangan aliran sosialisme ini sangat besar di negara kita sekarang di mana masyarakat mula memberi tumpuan terhadap keselesaan pengangkutan awam, tempat tinggal termasuklah harga barangan dan makanan yang murah. 

Jika benar pengundi tak percaya manifeto, mereka percaya apa dalam menentukan undi?

Berapa banyak manifesto sekalipun masyarakat sudah mengabaikan dan menganggap manifesto hanyalah sekadar bahan-bahan bercetak yang diberi oleh parti politik sebagai garis panduan apa yang mereka lakukan. 
Jadi, masyarakat melihat itu. Untuk masyarakat mempercayai seratus peratus manifesto itu sudah tidak wujud sebaliknya masyarakat sudah menanam suatu sikap baru iaitu untuk melihat politik praktikal atau pragmatik.

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